A formula developed by a writer for CBS Sports to determine which college QB is most likely to succeed in the NFL looks at statistical performance during specific situations relevant at the professional level, such as passes in third-and-long and fourth-down situations, and in defensive situations (SP+). The draft class’ scores in these areas are compiled and assessed against their contemporaries, with quarterback Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson the only below-average scoring quarterbacks who have gone on to achieve Pro Bowl or MVP-level success in the league. While the formula produces rankings of college quarterbacks, the author notes that predictions of NFL success are probabilistic, meaning that there are few guarantees. Of the top 20 scores since the formula’s inception in 2012, nine are expected to star on NFL teams in 2023, while eight of the bottom 10 scores are unlikely to have NFL success.
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